Natural Disasters and West Sumatra's Performance in 2025
Berita Utama Havina Mirsya \'afra, S. Sos.(DINAS KOMUNIKASI, INFORMATIKA DAN STATISTIK) 20 Januari 2026 14:49:47 WIB
By:
Rudy Rinaldy (Head of The West Sumatra Communications, Statistics and Informatics Dept)
Yosi Suryani (Lecturer in Padang State Polytechnic)
The end of 2025 was a particularly sad year for West Sumatra, even though the deep wounds from a similar disaster in 2024 had not yet healed. March 7th and 8th, followed by May 10th and 11th, 2024, were two natural disasters still fresh in our memories. West Sumatra's economy was still struggling to catch up and recover while battling inflation.
Having not yet recovered from these wounds and grief, at the end of 2025, West Sumatra was again struck by a hydrometeorological disaster on a larger scale. However, this time West Sumatra was not alone in facing this natural disaster. The provinces of North Sumatra and Aceh also closed 2025 with sorrow. The natural disasters at the end of 2025 in three Sumatran provinces, which killed more than 1,000 people, once again emphasized our continued indifference to natural disaster mitigation efforts, despite the fact that these natural disasters occurred due to our collective negligence.
In West Sumatra, this natural disaster caused 264 deaths, 72 people missing, and more than 10,000 people displaced, in 16 affected districts/cities. The highest number of deaths occurred in Agam Regency (194 people and 38 people missing), then Padang Pariaman Regency (35 people), followed by City of Padang Panjang (17 people and 29 people missing) and City of Padang (11 people and 2 people missing). The total damage and losses due to this natural disaster were more than IDR 33 trillion (source: Bappeda and BPBD of West Sumatra Province). Agam Regency suffered the greatest damage and losses (around IDR 10.49 trillion), then Padang Pariaman Regency (around IDR 5.48 trillion), and City of Padang (around IDR 4.88 trillion).
One of the distinguishing features of the hydrometeorological disaster in West Sumatra this time was the re-closure of the main Padang – Bukittinggi route in the Lembah Anai. The complete closure of this route for approximately nine days caused tremendous pressure on the Sitinjau Laut route, as the Malalak route was also impassable due to landslides. The West Sumatra Provincial Transportation Agency has attempted to analyze and calculate the transportation losses incurred due to the disruption of this route. The results indicate that the resulting losses reach approximately IDR 21 billion per day. This loss does not include the dozens of restaurants, shops, and other economic activities in City of Padang Panjang and the surrounding area that are unable to conduct transactions.
Based on the study results of the West Sumatra Province's Hydrometeorological Post-Disaster Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Plan, a budget allocation of approximately IDR 21.4 trillion is required for rehabilitation and reconstruction. The disaster experienced by West Sumatra Province has certainly had a significant impact on the overall economy. According to a release by the West Sumatra Provincial Statistics Agency in early January, the inflation rate in West Sumatra in December 2025 reached 5.15%, as initially predicted.
In 2024, our inflation rate tended to be high in the early months up to June, averaging around 4.00%. It then plateaued starting in July and continued to decline until December (0.89%). We experienced a different situation in 2025. While it plateaued in the early months (except April, when it was around 2.38%), our inflation rate continued to rise and peaked in December 2025.
Similarly, trade performance (exports and imports) also affected West Sumatra's export performance in 2025 compared to 2024. From January to October 2025, our export value increased by approximately 22.66% (US$ 2,458.14 million) compared to 2024 (US$ 2,004.05 million). However, the export volume in November 2025 fell drastically by -46.79% (or only around US$ 117.20 million) when compared to November 2024 (US$ 220.26 million)
At the same time, our import value actually increased sharply in November 2025. From January to October 2025, our import value increased by approximately 15.55% (US$ 530.17 million) compared to the same period in 2024 (US$ 458.83 million). Then, import value rose again to approximately 39.73% in November 2025 (US$ 66.30 million) compared to November 2024 (US$ 47.45 million).
The recent hydrometeorological disaster provides many valuable lessons, especially as the post-disaster response to a similar disaster in 2024 remains incomplete. Our economy is still struggling, although some anomalous indicators suggest otherwise.
We should be grateful for the swift action of the West Sumatra Provincial Government, assisted by all parties, in responding to and mitigating the disaster, which has been deemed excellent by many, including the Central Government. However, this is not the crucial point; rather, we are still neglecting disaster mitigation programs. Our focus is limited to responding rather than preparing programs to anticipate it.
Some of the economic statistics mentioned above are likely to worsen in the future due to the impact on so many agricultural production centers. The contribution of the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector to West Sumatra's GRDP in 2024, which was 21.18% (equivalent to IDR 31.44 trillion), is likely to be corrected given the vast extent of agricultural land currently affected. Similarly, the contribution of the wholesale and retail trade sector, which is 16.82% (equivalent to IDR 24.96 trillion), will also contract, in line with the export-import figures mentioned above.
Natural phenomena will never change; natural disasters will always occur. We hope that in 2026, extreme weather will not be as severe as in previous years, and we must immediately take concrete steps to prepare disaster mitigation programs. Our budget structure must be oriented towards prevention and anticipation, not solely allocated to disaster response. The damage and losses we have experienced, amounting to tens of trillions, might have been prevented if tens of billions had been allocated to mitigation programs, also known as silent work.
Disaster mitigation is silent work, and its success is invisible. Many consider mitigation programs to be wasteful and unnecessary. In fact, mitigation programs are not spending money, but rather investment. Economist John Maynard Keynes stated that the government plays a crucial role in regulating economic activity, especially during crises. This theory is relevant to our current situation, where the budget structure should favor preventative efforts to prevent further damage and losses in the future.